Dense oil situation is very similar. Two shale oil production up 81% of the nation's tight oil - South Texas Eagle Ford, as well as North Dakota and Montana Bakken.Fracturing proppant These two areas are in the new year well production dropped by about 60% after the second year of production only lasted less than 40% in the third year is less than 30% and continued to fall. Comprehensive old production wells, the whole field is the annual rate of decline of about 40%.
These fields can be used to maximum capacity depends on the maximum number of wells drilled.frac sand companies Can not be separated between wells too close, because it will draw on a reservoir with the reserves, increase costs, but can not increase the amount recoverable. EIA estimates Bakken and Eagle Ford oil can withstand the number of wells, almost three times the number of existing wells, or about 12,000 per oil wells.
Suppose now Bakken annual rate of drilling 1500 wells is maintained, it is expected to yield may rise to 100 million barrels / day. However, based on the Bakken EIA estimated the maximum number of drilling locations, production peaked in 2017.Proppant By then, can be used to drill additional wells will be exhausted, followed by attenuation of 40% annual yield. I do not agree with those who believe that Bakken production will be for many years to maintain a high level of view, this situation required number of wells, the number of more than meet the requirements of thousands of mouth.
fracturing fluid
2013年8月30日星期五
Shale gas production is indeed false prosperity
Horizontal well drilling and hydraulic fracturing of this large-scale multi-stage two technological breakthroughs ,hydraulic fracturing has made mining impermeable rocks hidden in hydrocarbons as possible. In 2004, the U.S. level of less than 10% of natural gas wells , now it is 61%.
Globally, although many countries have set up demonstration projects , but most still come from shale gas production in North America . After experiencing a period of rapid growth, since the beginning of 2012 , production has remained at a relatively stable level. Shale gas production has grown from 2000 accounted for 2% of U.S. natural gas production , gas production increased to 2012 nearly 40 percent ; period of U.S. natural gas production grew by 25%. The oversupply led to a sharp drop in U.S. natural gas prices . Currently, the prices have been some slight rebound , but for many no liquid hydrocarbon production capacity of shale gas field , the result of low natural gas prices due to their lack of profitability.
Large-scale shale gas production first began in the Barnett Shale area 10 years ago and quickly spread to other regions.fracturing proppant Five shale gas production 80% of U.S. shale gas production in descending order by : Louisiana Haynesville, East Texas Barnett, across West Virginia , Pennsylvania and New York State Marcellus, Arkansas in Fayetteville, and Oklahoma Woodford.
Currently, there is a specific pattern have occurred . A shale gas field was discovered, one leasing boom ensues. In the United States , given the high oil and gas exploration and development risks and returns , the parties to balance the distribution of benefits and reduce the risks and reduce uncertainty , has long formed the oil and gas lease system . Private , federal or state government landowners , mineral interests in oil and gas resources will be granted to oil and gas developers, and developers have capital and technology , access to such mineral interest in the exploration, development and production. Then it is 3 to 5 years of natural gas boom, because if a given location is no longer producing gas lease sale will be terminated. Shale gas -rich region known as dessert, was first identified and drilling , and then determine its edge region . The average gas quality ( determined by the initial capacity ) to initially rise and then begin to decline.
Since 2010 , the five largest shale gas field in the United States there are four gas fields , the average yield has been declining. In the Haynesville, 2012 , the average yield of almost a third more than 2010 youth . Marcellus is an exception : in this young , huge shale fields , and still continue to be found and mined , its supply is still maintained growth.
A gas well production will decline rapidly within a few years . U.S. shale gas in five wells in the first three years after production fell by 80% to 95%. Represented by fitting hyperbolic production decline trend of industry practice , and infer the life of wells can reach 40 years or more, a little too optimistic. Available historical production data up to only a few years , therefore , not enough to be able to have such wells confirmed a long life . As production declines faster than the typical conclusion of these models , this method often overestimated ultimate recovery wells and economic indicators . U.S. Geological Survey assessment of recoverable amount , and sometimes even less than the industry touted recoverable amount of the half.
In order to maintain the supply of new wells must be drilled . In the Haynesville gas well, almost a year need to create 800 wells - almost 2012 the number of gas wells in service 1/3-- to maintain production levels in 2012 . Each well costs about $ 900 million investment , in order to maintain production was essentially flat drilling takes $ 7 billion annually , if coupled with leasing , infrastructure and interest , including the total cost is even higher.
From the United States point of view, this is equivalent to the new 7200 wells per year , spend at least $ 42 billion , they can only offset the decline in production . In order to maintain production to support the lower shale gas prices, drilling ventures can not be completely recovered from sales . In 2012, the U.S. shale gas output value of only 33 billion ( although some wells also produce a considerable amount of liquid hydrocarbon , thereby enhancing the economy ) . For non- production of liquid hydrocarbons shale gas field , even if just to keep ends meet , but also need to increase gas prices .
In order to maintain production of shale gas , the industrial sector needs a lot of money . Over time , the best and the dessert is drilled shale field is completed, maintain the supply costs will rise .Frac sand Many existing shale gas production is not economical , even if only to maintain production , we need higher gas prices , not to mention increase production up .
Globally, although many countries have set up demonstration projects , but most still come from shale gas production in North America . After experiencing a period of rapid growth, since the beginning of 2012 , production has remained at a relatively stable level. Shale gas production has grown from 2000 accounted for 2% of U.S. natural gas production , gas production increased to 2012 nearly 40 percent ; period of U.S. natural gas production grew by 25%. The oversupply led to a sharp drop in U.S. natural gas prices . Currently, the prices have been some slight rebound , but for many no liquid hydrocarbon production capacity of shale gas field , the result of low natural gas prices due to their lack of profitability.
Large-scale shale gas production first began in the Barnett Shale area 10 years ago and quickly spread to other regions.fracturing proppant Five shale gas production 80% of U.S. shale gas production in descending order by : Louisiana Haynesville, East Texas Barnett, across West Virginia , Pennsylvania and New York State Marcellus, Arkansas in Fayetteville, and Oklahoma Woodford.
Currently, there is a specific pattern have occurred . A shale gas field was discovered, one leasing boom ensues. In the United States , given the high oil and gas exploration and development risks and returns , the parties to balance the distribution of benefits and reduce the risks and reduce uncertainty , has long formed the oil and gas lease system . Private , federal or state government landowners , mineral interests in oil and gas resources will be granted to oil and gas developers, and developers have capital and technology , access to such mineral interest in the exploration, development and production. Then it is 3 to 5 years of natural gas boom, because if a given location is no longer producing gas lease sale will be terminated. Shale gas -rich region known as dessert, was first identified and drilling , and then determine its edge region . The average gas quality ( determined by the initial capacity ) to initially rise and then begin to decline.
Since 2010 , the five largest shale gas field in the United States there are four gas fields , the average yield has been declining. In the Haynesville, 2012 , the average yield of almost a third more than 2010 youth . Marcellus is an exception : in this young , huge shale fields , and still continue to be found and mined , its supply is still maintained growth.
A gas well production will decline rapidly within a few years . U.S. shale gas in five wells in the first three years after production fell by 80% to 95%. Represented by fitting hyperbolic production decline trend of industry practice , and infer the life of wells can reach 40 years or more, a little too optimistic. Available historical production data up to only a few years , therefore , not enough to be able to have such wells confirmed a long life . As production declines faster than the typical conclusion of these models , this method often overestimated ultimate recovery wells and economic indicators . U.S. Geological Survey assessment of recoverable amount , and sometimes even less than the industry touted recoverable amount of the half.
In order to maintain the supply of new wells must be drilled . In the Haynesville gas well, almost a year need to create 800 wells - almost 2012 the number of gas wells in service 1/3-- to maintain production levels in 2012 . Each well costs about $ 900 million investment , in order to maintain production was essentially flat drilling takes $ 7 billion annually , if coupled with leasing , infrastructure and interest , including the total cost is even higher.
From the United States point of view, this is equivalent to the new 7200 wells per year , spend at least $ 42 billion , they can only offset the decline in production . In order to maintain production to support the lower shale gas prices, drilling ventures can not be completely recovered from sales . In 2012, the U.S. shale gas output value of only 33 billion ( although some wells also produce a considerable amount of liquid hydrocarbon , thereby enhancing the economy ) . For non- production of liquid hydrocarbons shale gas field , even if just to keep ends meet , but also need to increase gas prices .
In order to maintain production of shale gas , the industrial sector needs a lot of money . Over time , the best and the dessert is drilled shale field is completed, maintain the supply costs will rise .Frac sand Many existing shale gas production is not economical , even if only to maintain production , we need higher gas prices , not to mention increase production up .
U.S. shale gas costs are underestimated
"Shale gas revolution" - not previously mined from shale reservoirs shale gas and shale oil - has been as an energy game changer.Unconventional gas It is traditional offset the decline in oil and gas production, including shale gas is treated as a low-carbon future transitional fuel, shale oil (also called tight oil) are considered to be able to make the United States to become the world's largest oil producing countries, and reduce oil imports.
These heady proposition has largely been including the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), including government agencies to accept. BP predicts that by 2030, shale gas production will reach three times in 2011, tight oil production in 2011 will be based on an increase of 6 times.
These claims can not withstand careful scrutiny. By the California Santa Rosa in a "post-carbon institute" report "non-conventional fuels can open a new era of energy abundance do? ", The analysis of the United States, 30 and 21 dense shale gas fields, revealing the shale revolution will be difficult to maintain the reality. The study is based on widely adopted industry and government in the database 65000 Shale wells data.ceramic ball It shows shale and shale oil wells / gas production capacity has emerged as a steep downward trend. Many shale gas production costs have exceeded the current natural gas prices, the need to further increase the drilling and capital investment to maintain production.
While shale gas and tight oil extraction over a longer period of time to maintain a certain level above, but will likely yield more than the industrial sector and the government's optimistic forecast to be low. Unless prices rise significantly, or shale gas supply will decline sharply in the next decade. Around shale gas and tight oil,frac sand companies a more realistic discussion imminent - it needs to be sustainable, cost, and environmental impacts in further analysis.
These heady proposition has largely been including the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), including government agencies to accept. BP predicts that by 2030, shale gas production will reach three times in 2011, tight oil production in 2011 will be based on an increase of 6 times.
These claims can not withstand careful scrutiny. By the California Santa Rosa in a "post-carbon institute" report "non-conventional fuels can open a new era of energy abundance do? ", The analysis of the United States, 30 and 21 dense shale gas fields, revealing the shale revolution will be difficult to maintain the reality. The study is based on widely adopted industry and government in the database 65000 Shale wells data.ceramic ball It shows shale and shale oil wells / gas production capacity has emerged as a steep downward trend. Many shale gas production costs have exceeded the current natural gas prices, the need to further increase the drilling and capital investment to maintain production.
While shale gas and tight oil extraction over a longer period of time to maintain a certain level above, but will likely yield more than the industrial sector and the government's optimistic forecast to be low. Unless prices rise significantly, or shale gas supply will decline sharply in the next decade. Around shale gas and tight oil,frac sand companies a more realistic discussion imminent - it needs to be sustainable, cost, and environmental impacts in further analysis.
Shift to saving society
Currently, many discussions have focused on in the end what kind of alternative energy sources should be developed,Hydraulic fracturing as well as in the end should be extended to what proportion of alternative energy. In fact, the more important question is, how to use energy. Must be developed to meet basic human needs, while consuming less energy strategy. In the real energy shortages before the start, it is necessary to take early measures of protection.
About the food system, an understanding that will lead to low energy input of labor increases. Therefore, this change can bring jobs to millions of farmers. In addition, a significant reduction in agricultural production must be adapted to nitrogen fertilizer, pesticides and herbicides used, because these chemicals are due to fossil fuel prices become expensive.
Transportation system must adapt to mobility generally lower, and is committed to improve energy efficiency.Proppant In the future society, it is possible to rely on walking and cycling, while vigorously promoting the development of electric cars and rail and other public transport.
Reduced mobility need urban design and land use policy changes. Urban communities to be more independent, the city shall be able to provide the adjacent suburbs of agricultural products; roof-mounted solar water heating systems using solar cookers are widely respected.
Solar and wind will produce intermittent electricity. We must build a good power storage system to resolve intermittent problems. Reconfigure the grid and distributed power generation model will solve the problem of intermittent power strategy.
In short, it will be a continuous growth from the transition to a conservation-minded society historical stage. With the control of human energy less and less, may not operate a consumer society.
But suppose this analysis is wrong, there is a miracle of new technologies, or energy ultimately proved to be rich is not scarce, but even so, the amount of energy use will lead to increased consumption of large quantities of natural resources,fracturing proppant resulting in wild nature system damage. The transition to conservation-oriented society conducive human society, and it helps the natural environment.
About the food system, an understanding that will lead to low energy input of labor increases. Therefore, this change can bring jobs to millions of farmers. In addition, a significant reduction in agricultural production must be adapted to nitrogen fertilizer, pesticides and herbicides used, because these chemicals are due to fossil fuel prices become expensive.
Transportation system must adapt to mobility generally lower, and is committed to improve energy efficiency.Proppant In the future society, it is possible to rely on walking and cycling, while vigorously promoting the development of electric cars and rail and other public transport.
Reduced mobility need urban design and land use policy changes. Urban communities to be more independent, the city shall be able to provide the adjacent suburbs of agricultural products; roof-mounted solar water heating systems using solar cookers are widely respected.
Solar and wind will produce intermittent electricity. We must build a good power storage system to resolve intermittent problems. Reconfigure the grid and distributed power generation model will solve the problem of intermittent power strategy.
In short, it will be a continuous growth from the transition to a conservation-minded society historical stage. With the control of human energy less and less, may not operate a consumer society.
But suppose this analysis is wrong, there is a miracle of new technologies, or energy ultimately proved to be rich is not scarce, but even so, the amount of energy use will lead to increased consumption of large quantities of natural resources,fracturing proppant resulting in wild nature system damage. The transition to conservation-oriented society conducive human society, and it helps the natural environment.
Improve energy efficiency and economic growth paradox
With population growth and energy scarcity near future per capita energy consumption will be less. Thus, whatever people are drawing a blueprint for a low-carbon or carbon,Ceramic proppant the results are the same, that is used in transportation, agriculture, and home heating and cooling energy is less and less, for the manufacture and use of electronic products increasingly energy less for the construction and maintenance of the city's less and less energy.
Efficiency may help people reduce energy consumption. On how to reduce energy inputs, relevant research has been carried out for decades. As to the present from incandescent bulbs LED lights, lighting electricity consumption decreased by 90%. However, energy efficiency efforts also subject to the constraints of the law of diminishing returns. Can not be in the case of energy, manufacturing and transportation of goods, and each time efficiency are meant to be used even more energy.
Humanity is at a crossroads. Since the industrial revolution, cheap and abundant energy driving the economy is growing, management elite is willing to participate in the discussion of how to develop the economy.
And now, I'm afraid discussions must focus on how to achieve economic contraction. Hard to imagine that politicians promised in campaign speeches to achieve economic crunch,ceramic ball which is tantamount to self-destruct. Original mode of thinking has been ingrained, but sooner or later reality will shatter the dream of the earth's resources endless growth.
Sooner or later, humans had to implement energy conservation policy, which means that you must increase efficiency, using less energy to provide the same service. It also means that you must reduce unnecessary energy consumption, rather than continue to increase demand for energy. Must begin to consider how to meet the basic minimum consumption of resources needs.
If you can plan ahead,frac sand then to a more sustainable, more flexible and less energy consuming sectors of the economy will shift more smoothly.
Efficiency may help people reduce energy consumption. On how to reduce energy inputs, relevant research has been carried out for decades. As to the present from incandescent bulbs LED lights, lighting electricity consumption decreased by 90%. However, energy efficiency efforts also subject to the constraints of the law of diminishing returns. Can not be in the case of energy, manufacturing and transportation of goods, and each time efficiency are meant to be used even more energy.
Humanity is at a crossroads. Since the industrial revolution, cheap and abundant energy driving the economy is growing, management elite is willing to participate in the discussion of how to develop the economy.
And now, I'm afraid discussions must focus on how to achieve economic contraction. Hard to imagine that politicians promised in campaign speeches to achieve economic crunch,ceramic ball which is tantamount to self-destruct. Original mode of thinking has been ingrained, but sooner or later reality will shatter the dream of the earth's resources endless growth.
Sooner or later, humans had to implement energy conservation policy, which means that you must increase efficiency, using less energy to provide the same service. It also means that you must reduce unnecessary energy consumption, rather than continue to increase demand for energy. Must begin to consider how to meet the basic minimum consumption of resources needs.
If you can plan ahead,frac sand then to a more sustainable, more flexible and less energy consuming sectors of the economy will shift more smoothly.
2013年8月29日星期四
Structural changes in the international energy impact analysis
If the future of China could overtake the United States rather than just "guest " world's first large country location imported oil ,
shale gas revolution brought about by changes in the international energy structure will be more far-reaching implications , not only to the new international division of labor, but also affects the layout of industrial ecology and trade and other aspects.
First, the international energy structure changes greatly affected the distribution of the international energy market territory . First, the U.S. position in the international oil market will extend from the demand supply-side direction . Citigroup an analytical report that due to their increase in the amount of shale oil mining , oil and gas production in the United States is now the world 's fastest growing countries , the United States may in the future to achieve " energy independence" ,Ceramic proppant the report even including the United States , Canada, North America , including Mexico, known as the " new Middle East ." Second, with the U.S. foreign oil imports reduced, and many oil-exporting capacity needs through other channels to digest , and absorb the oil exporting countries on China 's surplus production capacity will play a more important role. Third, the pressure on the world's major oil-producing countries are not the same . Now it seems that the U.S. is a major reduction from Nigeria and other countries of the light oil , heavy oil, and for the major export markets of the Gulf countries , the United States still rely heavily on . Because the U.S. dependence on foreign oil decline , the United States is likely to further the future of the existing trading partners to be screened , and for places like Venezuela, the United States "do not like " countries , the United States is also likely to reduce the country 's oil from such imports.
Second, with the development of shale gas on the international energy prices play a role in repression , the United States re-industrialization process will get wheel drive . With the third industrial revolution accelerated process , the U.S. manufacturing sector will largely depend on production efficiency to overcome the disadvantages of scarce labor resources . Meanwhile, the U.S. manufacturing sector will help stabilize energy prices by lowering costs to regain price competitiveness .
Again, will bring new economic growth point , especially with the " shale gas" revolution approaching, the U.S. oil industry once again active. American Gas Association released a study shows that by 2015 ,frac sand companies shale gas on the U.S. contribution to GDP will reach $ 118 billion , about 800,000 Americans will thus get jobs , compared to the U.S. unemployment rate fell 0.5 percentage points.
In addition , the United States leading force in the international energy market opportunities for further strengthening. In the use of financial derivatives speculation , the international speculative capital not only for the energy needs of the United States subject to speculation, but also more energy supply capacity against the United States for speculation . Thus , the international market prices of the long and short of energy conversion pace will be more frequent , will add more uncertainty .
First, the international energy structure changes greatly affected the distribution of the international energy market territory . First, the U.S. position in the international oil market will extend from the demand supply-side direction . Citigroup an analytical report that due to their increase in the amount of shale oil mining , oil and gas production in the United States is now the world 's fastest growing countries , the United States may in the future to achieve " energy independence" ,Ceramic proppant the report even including the United States , Canada, North America , including Mexico, known as the " new Middle East ." Second, with the U.S. foreign oil imports reduced, and many oil-exporting capacity needs through other channels to digest , and absorb the oil exporting countries on China 's surplus production capacity will play a more important role. Third, the pressure on the world's major oil-producing countries are not the same . Now it seems that the U.S. is a major reduction from Nigeria and other countries of the light oil , heavy oil, and for the major export markets of the Gulf countries , the United States still rely heavily on . Because the U.S. dependence on foreign oil decline , the United States is likely to further the future of the existing trading partners to be screened , and for places like Venezuela, the United States "do not like " countries , the United States is also likely to reduce the country 's oil from such imports.
Second, with the development of shale gas on the international energy prices play a role in repression , the United States re-industrialization process will get wheel drive . With the third industrial revolution accelerated process , the U.S. manufacturing sector will largely depend on production efficiency to overcome the disadvantages of scarce labor resources . Meanwhile, the U.S. manufacturing sector will help stabilize energy prices by lowering costs to regain price competitiveness .
Again, will bring new economic growth point , especially with the " shale gas" revolution approaching, the U.S. oil industry once again active. American Gas Association released a study shows that by 2015 ,frac sand companies shale gas on the U.S. contribution to GDP will reach $ 118 billion , about 800,000 Americans will thus get jobs , compared to the U.S. unemployment rate fell 0.5 percentage points.
In addition , the United States leading force in the international energy market opportunities for further strengthening. In the use of financial derivatives speculation , the international speculative capital not only for the energy needs of the United States subject to speculation, but also more energy supply capacity against the United States for speculation . Thus , the international market prices of the long and short of energy conversion pace will be more frequent , will add more uncertainty .
"Super America" behind the structural changes in the international energy
With China's sustained economic development, China's dependence on imported oil for the increasingly high. From December 2012, China's average daily oil imports reached 612 million barrels, while the U.S. average daily volume of imports was only 598 million barrels a level, which is China's first monthly oil imports than the United States. However,frac sand China's oil imports "super beauty" structural changes in the international energy behind it are the background of this layer. In fact, as the U.S. shale gas development on traditional energy substitution effect gradually, U.S. dependence on imported oil will be reduced accordingly.
Although the United States in early 2013, oil imports have overtake China, at this stage can not say China will soon overtake the United States to become the world's biggest oil-importing countries, but the long-term perspective, China's imports of oil trade with the "super-beauty" possibilities. In 2012, the United States purchased from abroad, the total value of crude oil and oil products has dropped to a minimum of 20 years for the average daily volume of imports of 714 million barrels per day. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts, in 2014 the United States, including crude oil and petroleum products, including average daily net imports will be reduced to 600 million barrels, the lowest level since 1987, Proppant less than half the highest level in history. The same period, China's net imports of crude oil will average 572 million barrels per day, the United States is likely to form a "rear-end." By 2020, China's oil shortfall of 250 to 430 million tons. Since China does not have the massive expansion of oil production capacity to 2020, China's oil imports are likely to cross 300 million tons. If you follow this trend continues, China's oil import real "trend" rather than "temporary" to replace the United States should be a high probability event.
U.S. imports of oil trade position change behind shale gas revolution, and shale gas revolution for the world's energy structure is profound.
On the one hand, shale gas revolution to the world's energy is reflected in the structure of the internal natural gas resources on species composition. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration statistics, in 2007, shale gas in the U.S. natural gas production in the proportion was only 8.1%, and by 2011, this proportion rose to 29.8%.
On the other hand, shale gas revolution, the impact on the world energy mix is reflected in the change in the overall structure. From the International Monetary Fund released statistics difficult to see that in 2008, the U.S. market price per 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas per barrel of West Texas crude oil over the same period the parity of 3.202, while in 2012 it dropped to 1.097. Parity between different energy sources will produce changes in the allocation of resources to follow up the effect, help to improve the efficient and clean energy in the world energy mix proportion.
Shale gas revolution, in addition to improving the energy structure of the world play a catalytic role,fracturing proppant it will inevitably bring "friendly fire" effect. From the development of biofuels in terms of shale gas revolution will increase in large uncertainties in the development of bio-energy, alternative to traditional energy sources are not excluded from the process, the shale gas for bio-energy, it has a certain cost. " intercept "advantage, resulting in non-renewable energy renewable energy reverse exclusion.
In addition to oil and gas resources, in recent years, China's coal import dependence is also rising. Whether increased imports of oil or coal, are inseparable from China directly stimulating economic growth, but also inseparable from the U.S. shale gas revolution brought indirectly with the external environment.Unconventional gas Shale gas revolution, which reduces American dependence on foreign oil, the objective is to promote U.S. oil imports will eventually be the "first" position "so that" to China.
Although the United States in early 2013, oil imports have overtake China, at this stage can not say China will soon overtake the United States to become the world's biggest oil-importing countries, but the long-term perspective, China's imports of oil trade with the "super-beauty" possibilities. In 2012, the United States purchased from abroad, the total value of crude oil and oil products has dropped to a minimum of 20 years for the average daily volume of imports of 714 million barrels per day. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts, in 2014 the United States, including crude oil and petroleum products, including average daily net imports will be reduced to 600 million barrels, the lowest level since 1987, Proppant less than half the highest level in history. The same period, China's net imports of crude oil will average 572 million barrels per day, the United States is likely to form a "rear-end." By 2020, China's oil shortfall of 250 to 430 million tons. Since China does not have the massive expansion of oil production capacity to 2020, China's oil imports are likely to cross 300 million tons. If you follow this trend continues, China's oil import real "trend" rather than "temporary" to replace the United States should be a high probability event.
U.S. imports of oil trade position change behind shale gas revolution, and shale gas revolution for the world's energy structure is profound.
On the one hand, shale gas revolution to the world's energy is reflected in the structure of the internal natural gas resources on species composition. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration statistics, in 2007, shale gas in the U.S. natural gas production in the proportion was only 8.1%, and by 2011, this proportion rose to 29.8%.
On the other hand, shale gas revolution, the impact on the world energy mix is reflected in the change in the overall structure. From the International Monetary Fund released statistics difficult to see that in 2008, the U.S. market price per 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas per barrel of West Texas crude oil over the same period the parity of 3.202, while in 2012 it dropped to 1.097. Parity between different energy sources will produce changes in the allocation of resources to follow up the effect, help to improve the efficient and clean energy in the world energy mix proportion.
Shale gas revolution, in addition to improving the energy structure of the world play a catalytic role,fracturing proppant it will inevitably bring "friendly fire" effect. From the development of biofuels in terms of shale gas revolution will increase in large uncertainties in the development of bio-energy, alternative to traditional energy sources are not excluded from the process, the shale gas for bio-energy, it has a certain cost. " intercept "advantage, resulting in non-renewable energy renewable energy reverse exclusion.
In addition to oil and gas resources, in recent years, China's coal import dependence is also rising. Whether increased imports of oil or coal, are inseparable from China directly stimulating economic growth, but also inseparable from the U.S. shale gas revolution brought indirectly with the external environment.Unconventional gas Shale gas revolution, which reduces American dependence on foreign oil, the objective is to promote U.S. oil imports will eventually be the "first" position "so that" to China.
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