2013年8月29日星期四

"Super America" ​​behind the structural changes in the international energy

With China's sustained economic development, China's dependence on imported oil for the increasingly high. From December 2012, China's average daily oil imports reached 612 million barrels, while the U.S. average daily volume of imports was only 598 million barrels a level, which is China's first monthly oil imports than the United States. However,frac sand China's oil imports "super beauty" structural changes in the international energy behind it are the background of this layer. In fact, as the U.S. shale gas development on traditional energy substitution effect gradually, U.S. dependence on imported oil will be reduced accordingly.
Although the United States in early 2013, oil imports have overtake China, at this stage can not say China will soon overtake the United States to become the world's biggest oil-importing countries, but the long-term perspective, China's imports of oil trade with the "super-beauty" possibilities. In 2012, the United States purchased from abroad, the total value of crude oil and oil products has dropped to a minimum of 20 years for the average daily volume of imports of 714 million barrels per day. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts, in 2014 the United States, including crude oil and petroleum products, including average daily net imports will be reduced to 600 million barrels, the lowest level since 1987, Proppant less than half the highest level in history. The same period, China's net imports of crude oil will average 572 million barrels per day, the United States is likely to form a "rear-end." By 2020, China's oil shortfall of 250 to 430 million tons. Since China does not have the massive expansion of oil production capacity to 2020, China's oil imports are likely to cross 300 million tons. If you follow this trend continues, China's oil import real "trend" rather than "temporary" to replace the United States should be a high probability event.
U.S. imports of oil trade position change behind shale gas revolution, and shale gas revolution for the world's energy structure is profound.
On the one hand, shale gas revolution to the world's energy is reflected in the structure of the internal natural gas resources on species composition. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration statistics, in 2007, shale gas in the U.S. natural gas production in the proportion was only 8.1%, and by 2011, this proportion rose to 29.8%.
On the other hand, shale gas revolution, the impact on the world energy mix is ​​reflected in the change in the overall structure. From the International Monetary Fund released statistics difficult to see that in 2008, the U.S. market price per 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas per barrel of West Texas crude oil over the same period the parity of 3.202, while in 2012 it dropped to 1.097. Parity between different energy sources will produce changes in the allocation of resources to follow up the effect, help to improve the efficient and clean energy in the world energy mix proportion.
Shale gas revolution, in addition to improving the energy structure of the world play a catalytic role,fracturing proppant it will inevitably bring "friendly fire" effect. From the development of biofuels in terms of shale gas revolution will increase in large uncertainties in the development of bio-energy, alternative to traditional energy sources are not excluded from the process, the shale gas for bio-energy, it has a certain cost. " intercept "advantage, resulting in non-renewable energy renewable energy reverse exclusion.
In addition to oil and gas resources, in recent years, China's coal import dependence is also rising. Whether increased imports of oil or coal, are inseparable from China directly stimulating economic growth, but also inseparable from the U.S. shale gas revolution brought indirectly with the external environment.Unconventional gas Shale gas revolution, which reduces American dependence on foreign oil, the objective is to promote U.S. oil imports will eventually be the "first" position "so that" to China.

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