2013年9月8日星期日

Shale gas is indeed tempting cakes blocks

Shale gas is the energy sector in recent years ranked first in the world of keywords, but also by the Chinese people have heard more and more understanding. U.S. shale gas  production in the rapid growth of the past few years, is considered to be an energy revolution. In the United States Department of Energy report, China's shale gas reserves in the world.

China on the exploitation of shale gas spirits when, some industry experts and industry to pour cold water on this website that China can not be fooled by the United States, or even that that in itself is a conspiracy, trap. In the end how to treat this might reshape the national economic structure, as well as social life energy revolution?

Shale gas is indeed tempting cakes blocks

Shale gas made great contributions to the U.S. economy,frac sand compared to China's natural gas utilization is low and the high dependence on foreign

Shale gas, layman's terms is stored in the shale gas, and we usually cook a bath with natural gas is no different, the main component is methane, but more difficult to develop. The combustion of natural gas off than burning oil less greenhouse gases produced about half of the energy is much higher cleanliness. Meanwhile, gas prices much cheaper than oil. Therefore, the high cost.

With shale gas production steadily increased, the United States hardly needs of foreign imports of natural gas, later also can be exported
2007, blowout in shale gas production, driven by the rapid growth of the U.S. natural gas production, oversupply trend, natural gas prices from $ 8 per thousand cubic feet all the way down to the 2012 $ 2 (about 1000 cubic feet equal to 28.3 cubic meters).

Whether Chinese, Japanese, or European countries, the price of gas more expensive than the United States. It also contributed significantly to many American industrial sector energy costs.ceramic ball In addition, the exploitation of shale gas but also for chemical companies to provide ethane and other raw materials, such as Dow Chemical intended only to build a new plant in the Middle East, and finally in the United States built a.

Consulting firm IHS data show the U.S. shale gas revolution, the rapid development of the chemical industry and has created 1.7 million jobs. So, whether it is the U.S. economy or the lives of ordinary people have benefited from shale gas. University of Houston finance professor Edward - Hess participated in the preparation of a report on the U.S. economy in 2011 alone is estimated to benefit from low gas prices more than 100 billion U.S. dollars.

And China's natural gas in the energy consumption structure in the proportion of very low, only 4%, lower than the world average of nearly 20 percentage points. Meanwhile,Fracturing proppant the foreign dependency quite high, in 2011, 24.3 per cent is imported. Many people may wonder shale gas in China to become a "trap"

Shale gas set off an energy revolution

U.S. shale oil supply shocks shift the global balance of power, shale oil production of economic value added, but critics say the environmental costs are also increasing.
U.S. shale oil reserves will rise in new and existing between manufacturers change the global balance of power in the next five years, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA),Fracturing proppant the U.S. will account for one-third of the new energy supply, the United States will change from the world's leading net exporter of oil-importing countries.
Changes in demand for oil will slow oil imports from the Middle East oil-producing results.
"North American off a supply shock, sending ripples around the world," the International Energy Agency Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven.
According to the International Energy Agency predicts that the surge in production capacity we will reshape the entire industry, mainly through the agency twice a year for the next five years, the trend of oil supply and demand report and famous.
IEA said in 2015 the U.S. is expected to replace Russia as the world's largest producer of natural gas, in 2035 will become the "all use of shale gas and self-sufficiency" of the country,ceramic ball we rise in production volume means the world to the traditional oil-producing countries - Middle East and OPEC (OPEC) will soon end,
According to the International Energy Agency, from 2012 to 2018 will take place in the traditional non-opec countries increased 390 million barrels of oil per day, accounting for about two thirds of the growth is expected.
At the same time, global oil demand will increase by 8%, will be dominated by non-OPEC supply, the report says the International Energy Agency is still expected in the next five years, the production capacity in the Middle East Peck suppliers continued growth, but hopefully slowing down.
It is easy to understand Lida market report, OPEC production capacity holds 35% of global oil output is expected to increase 1.75 million barrels per day to 3,675 barrels in 2018 to approximately 750 million barrels more than the IEA forecast for 2012 less.
Sharp rise in U.S. oil production is largely derived from shale oil products, it is hailed by many energy savior.frac sand Hydraulic fracturing, blasting water under high pressure shock release oil shale rock (or gas), this method has been very mature in the United States, but critics point out the oil shale environmental problems such as high water use and possible water pollution, the release of methane and to a lesser extent caused by the seismic drilling.

Shale gas: American Capital "conspiracy"

31 years ago, George - Michelle (GeorgeMitchell) and his engineers Michel energy company, has been looking to extract natural gas from shale approach. Until 1998, 80-year-old Michelle in hydraulic fracturing technology has made a success for the U.S.  shale gas  revolution laid the foundation.

Almost overnight, shale gas revolution sweeping the globe, the U.S. technology has been used around the world.

"But, both in the United States, or in the world, this is a controversial technology." Lifetime interview, Michelle was not confused. This technology is still a lot of questions left to the world:Unconventional gas it will consume a lot of water? It brings the U.S. "small earthquakes continue to"? Its cost is not too high? ......

Larger question that the U.S. shale gas revolution is in fact a hoax, a foreign expert in scientific journals issued a document that,fracturing proppant in the first year of operation, shale gas production declined by 60 percent to 90 percent.

Shale gas development is also considered face huge financial obstacles. "Drilling being destroyed at an alarming rate of capital, drilling company left a mountain of debt, while the decline has begun to wreak havoc in order to avoid disrupting descent rate income statement, the company had more drilling new wells, old wells yield decline. "" The New York Times "in 2011, a survey pointed out that the U.S. oil industry surface optimistic,Proppant but" in private but then shale gas skeptical. " "Shale gas bubble will collapse sooner or later." In this case, the U.S. export to China, "shale gas revolution" even considered to be the capital of the United States "conspiracy."

The next "two rooms crisis"?

Shale gas is the dream of American energy independence provides a paintbrush.

2004-2009, the annual growth rate of U.S.  shale gas  reached 40% or more, and a few hundred billion cubic meters per year increment blowout. In 2012, the U.S. shale gas accounted for the total amount of natural gas increased from 1% in 2000 to 37 per cent to 265.3 billion cubic meters, almost the whole of China's annual consumption of natural gas (about 150 billion cubic meters) twice .

Shale gas can change the energy world situation do? Even the Americans themselves do not believe.

In recent years, as the U.S. natural gas prices continued to fall, shale gas development increasingly slim profit margins,Ceramic proppant or even unprofitable. American business people began to turn to higher prices and interest can also use technology to exploit shale gas unconventional oil - shale oil. Last year, the U.S. shale gas industry showed a decline, many companies verge of bankruptcy, shut down a lot of wells.

"The New York Times", "Foreign Policy" and other U.S. media have questioned some even likened the U.S. shale gas industry under a "two rooms crisis." They believe that the U.S. shale gas industry, thanks to the rise of large-scale entry of international capital, but capital into obscures vast resources of shale gas industry lapse rate (number of wells is often only one or two years of life) the biggest problem .frac sand companies This makes shale gas high production costs. Nevertheless, pre-complex financing agreement has forced many companies to bite continues shale gas production, which also makes a lot of companies saddled with huge liabilities.

Shale gas industry, once the bubble burst, a large number of shale gas company's debt crisis will probably form a plague-like financial crisis.

Prospects for the development of shale gas analysis

 Some time ago by the mad chase market funds  shale gas  stocks recently collective cold, reportedly because of a lot of the company's controlling shareholder and senior big company stock holdings. September this year will mark the second time shale gas tender, the tender related stocks before the collective diving, will produce what kind of impact the tender? What are the prospects of the development of shale gas?
The United States is currently the world's most successful exploitation of shale gas in the country. Shale gas development largely reduce the U.S. dependence on imported oil and improve the structure of its energy supply. In 2009, the United States more than Russia became the world's largest producer of natural gas. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that by 2021 the United States will become a net exporter of natural gas. U.S.frac sand shale gas development led to the success of shale gas exploration worldwide attention.
America's success has made many other countries to follow suit. Russia announced that it will actively respond to the challenges U.S. shale gas development, Poland, Great Britain, Italy, Norway and China and so began to increase shale gas investment. China has rich shale gas resources, and begin to strengthen international cooperation to accelerate shale gas exploration and development.
China is in the urbanization, industrialization stage of development, in the last decade, natural gas consumption showed a double-digit growth, while China's energy supply sustainability and stability is experiencing a tremendous challenge. Faced with an increasingly daunting pressure to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, China's energy consumption reduction targets but also by the constraints (to 2020, carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP than in 2005 dropped 40% - 45%). And now provides 70% of domestic energy consumption compared to coal, shale gas cleaner and fewer emissions. Therefore, the development of shale gas will not only help expand the scale of natural gas supply, but also to meet our future energy structure adjustment direction. With the rapid growth in demand for natural gas as well as the transition to low-carbon energy mix,Proppant the development of shale gas also seems to be an inevitable choice for China's energy industry.
 
At present, China's shale gas exploration and development technology is relatively weak. To achieve technological catch the short term, the relevant policy support is essential. The U.S. government on shale gas development and utilization of the implementation of tax incentives and give some subsidies. Relatively speaking, China's shale gas development and utilization of a lack of systemic support, including lack of proper strategic planning and supporting strategic planning support policy.Ceramic proppant This may cause the associated enterprises lack sufficient funds or of shale gas exploration and development without enthusiasm. In the appropriate government incentives, foreign shale gas development and utilization of the technology gap can be quickly reduced.

Natural gas prices are affecting China an important factor in the development of shale gas

Natural gas prices are affecting China an important factor in the development of  shale gas  . At present, the domestic gas price is much lower than the international prices . Our increasing dependence on imported natural gas , domestic gas prices increase pressure for reform . December 2011 , the National Development and Reform Commission decided in Guangdong Province and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region to carry natural gas pricing reform.
And other price reforms , like natural gas price reform will also face many difficulties . The most important aspect of the process of the natural gas market , how to balance the interests of all parties ( including governments, businesses and the end consumer , etc. ) .
For example , the domestic gas prices may rise sharply therefore , is one of the important issues. Efficient natural gas pricing mechanism reform to China's shale gas development can provide a better environment for development. Of course, the development of shale gas in turn,fracturing proppant can increase the supply of natural gas to reduce pressure on domestic gas prices .
Rising international oil prices and growing dependence on imported natural gas , could force the Chinese government to formulate specific policies to encourage the development of shale gas . However, we need to pay special attention to the development of shale gas , the environmental risks. There are many American shale gas to underground and surface water resources in the discussion of the potential risks . In China, water is a very poor country, if shale gas water hazards , then , its development will be greatly limited. Limited by resource extraction in the external environment , shale gas development process can not simply rely on the enterprise environment is obviously self-discipline . Three aspects of policy instruments must also be put in place : the relevant laws and regulations, strict supervision , and related penalties.
Exploitation of shale gas is still in its infancy. Although China's current estimates of shale gas reserves are not yet agreed , but there is no doubt that the development of shale gas will increase the supply of natural gas and reduce our dependence on imported natural gas .
For the market, the short-term shale gas is indeed just a concept, to assess the possible inputs and outputs a matter of opinion ,ceramic ball investors need to be cautious. To achieve large-scale commercial exploitation of shale gas and the formation of relatively good efficiency, but also take quite a long time. But we will see the rise of shale gas . Therefore , without worrying about shale gas second tender , because the market in addition to speculators , there are many investors with strategic vision .

2013年9月6日星期五

Shale oil and gas ≠ shale gas shale oil +

China's oil and gas industry saw a " shale oil " is , this description is mined from shale gas and shale with this symbiosis, associated shale oil . " Shale gas " read together fluently ,Ceramic proppant in fact, the basic concepts confused confusion . First, shale gas extraction from shale , there are symbiotic with shale gas , associated crude production, be mistaken for shale oil , in fact, dense oil. Currently people on shale oil, tight oil has a different understanding of the meaning , so the shale oil and tight oil in the use of terminology misunderstanding and controversy. Shale and tight rock in scientific research , it will be divided into broad and narrow shale oil , tight oil also will be divided into broad and narrow , but in practice, the two meanings of concise , making it easy to understand. Tight oil and shale oil are both unconventional oil , because of its dense reservoir permeability is extremely poor with conventional technology can not achieve economic development . Tight oil , is in English "tightoil" Chinese translation ,frac proppant also known as light tight oil , shale gas in the production zone of the use of horizontal drilling and multi-stage hydraulic fracturing to produce mature oil . From the dense layer and mined oil shale are tight oil . The shale oil corresponding English is "shaleoil", is produced from oil shale oil , also known as kerogen oil , is stranded in the crude oil source rocks , without the migration of immature oil . Oil shale must be heated through artificial hydrogenation by distillation of crude oil extracted from oil shale is similar , also known as synthetic oil . Dense oil in the oil quality the same as the conventional reservoir , all belong to light crude oil and shale oil is a heavy oil , which is the difference between the API gravity and viscosity difference and extracted in different ways. Two different production locations , tight oil from underground mining , and oil shale retorting on the ground . Tight oil need to use horizontal drilling and multi-stage fracturing technology in order to achieve economic exploitation, and shale gas production in the same way . The main use of the ground retorting oil shale production method , production can be divided into internal combustion , thermal cycling solid France , next door to the heat transfer method, an external injection of hot gas , reaction fluid method for internal combustion -based, China's use of Fushun distillation method . Shale oil is mainly in China , Brazil, Russia and Estonia production . In addition, while many media that the U.S. shale gas and shale oil production ranks first in the world . This statement is also problematic. 2011 China produced about 650,000 tons of shale oil , ranking first in the world .frac sand companies So called "America's shale gas and shale oil production ranks first in the world ," no data to support the foundation . The United States is the largest producer of shale gas , tight oil production is also accompanied by big country , but it is a small country of shale oil production ; China is the largest producer of shale oil , shale gas production is a small country .

The most important thing is the Asian energy security issues

Asia is the world's largest and most dynamic energy market , it therefore has a global responsibility .
Asia 's rapid economic growth to promote its huge energy consumer demand. However, due to the release into the atmosphere of carbon dioxide emissions in the coming decades may be doubled ,Hydraulic fracturing Asia 's high dependence on fossil fuels is likely to cause significant adverse environmental damage.
It is estimated that due to urbanization and there are more sources of energy , Asia's share of total global energy consumption, the proportion may be increased to one-third from the current 50% to 2035 . The Asian Development Bank said that under the current energy structure situation in Asia ,Proppant Asia 's oil consumption may rise double natural gas consumption may be increased by two , while coal consumption could rise by 80%.
Asian challenge is on the one hand and the need to allow for sustainable energy policies to promote the continuous development of the economy , on the other hand are available so that people can be cheap energy .
Solve these politically sensitive energy issues can be difficult, but as long as policy makers to show creativity and determination , these problems are not insurmountable . This also requires governments in the region between the concerted action .
Asia's new energy policy direction has been very clear , mainly related to three aspects .
The first is to use clean energy to replace fossil fuels, especially oil and coal . Shale gas is an option. China has the world's largest reserves of shale gas potential . If it can be successfully resolved hydraulic fracturing involves water and pollution problems , it can reduce the heavy use of coal .
Despite the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident , nuclear power is still economically viable solution. As long as the non-proliferation , waste management and security progress , Asia is likely to expand use of nuclear energy .
Should also pay more attention to local development of new green energy technologies or transfer of those technologies developed problems . From advanced technology solutions , including urbanization economies electricity storage and smart grid , until in poor agriculture-based countries, the basic energy off-grid power systems . Use of clean energy costs by introducing or expanding greenhouse gas emissions tax or carbon emissions trading mechanism to resolve.
The second key issue is energy subsidies . In some countries, due to government regulations tariff is lower than generation costs ,frac sand does not properly reflect energy costs, thus distorting the price structure , resulting in rapid growth in electricity demand .
It will not play a role in encouraging the efficient use of energy , especially in the power-hungry industries. Subsidized and affordable energy will not encourage investment in the electricity industry , because it would bring the power companies a heavy financial burden , and even cause their loss . As for the people to provide gasoline and other basic fuel subsidies , more severe deficits in some countries .
Reduce subsidies to reduce energy demand while helping to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. In general, Asian countries should adopt market-based pricing policies to encourage energy efficiency and reduction of oil and other fossil fuels imports. In some cases , if a fuel subsidy is specifically targeted at the poor , in order to prevent social unrest or encourage technological breakthroughs , you can retain this subsidy.
As the world's proven oil imports accounted for only 9% of oil reserves , so the problem of oil imports is particularly important for Asia . However, according to current trends, oil imports are expected in the next 20 years will be increased by two , so that Asia is more vulnerable to external supply crisis.
Finally, it should be like in Europe, efforts to promote pan-Asian energy market integration, including under uniform regulations, standards and pricing policies will be national grid.
This is certainly a daunting task. Asia is not similar to the European Union as a political framework . Moreover , the Asian region is vast , diverse geographic features , from the mountains to the sea has been so with relatively compact compared to Europe , Asia energy cooperation to harder .
But with Asia continue to strengthen the construction of regional economic groupings , such as ASEAN and China in Northeast Asia , Japan and South Korea to establish a free trade area between energy policy coordination is likely to be carried out .
We hope that will be held in October in Daegu, South Korea at the World Energy Congress will also provide the region's energy ministers,unconventional gas CEOs and energy companies to provide an opportunity and a platform for researchers , as can be about how to overcome the Asian challenge their energy to make the discussion valuable contribution .

At present, Sino-US cooperation in the field of climate change and what favorable conditions , and what challenges ?

U.S. Energy Information Administration 's latest data show that in 2012 , the U.S. fossil fuel combustion carbon dioxide emissions compared with the previous year dropped again , and since 1994 reached the lowest level . There are many reasons behind this phenomenon ,ceramic ball in addition to the continued economic downturn in the United States , and the United States to improve energy efficiency standards for cars , and I want to emphasize is that the U.S. unconventional oil and gas sector ( especially shale gas industry ) revolutionary change , are profoundly changing the U.S. and global energy map .
Shale gas revolution led to the American natural gas production and consumption grow very quickly, of natural gas in primary energy consumption in the United States the proportion of 22% from 2006 to 2011, the rapid growth of 26 percent. On the other hand , shale gas industry in the horizontal drilling , hydraulic fracturing and micro- seismic monitoring other areas of technology breakthroughs, has also led to the development of U.S. shale oil industry , U.S. energy security so much improved from dependence on foreign oil in 2005 to 60% now down to about 40%.
These changes in the United States to China-US Cooperation on Climate Change has brought no small opportunity, the United States and emission reduction pressure decreases , there is spare capacity and interest the international emission reduction transactions. At the same time ,Ceramic proppant Chinese shale gas technically recoverable reserves ranked first in the world , according to assessment . In view of shale gas in the United States the great success of the two countries in question will shale gas development has a great space for cooperation. In addition, oil security , nuclear power development, energy trading and new energy development and other fields, China-US cooperation in space is in fact not small .
For China , the Sino-US cooperation in the field of climate , it is now both challenges and opportunities . In recent years, rapid growth in China's greenhouse gas emissions . I have recently preliminary estimate, China 2012 carbon dioxide produced by fossil fuel combustion emissions , more than the U.S. national carbon emission levels for more than half ; just fired carbon emissions will exceed U.S. carbon dioxide emissions nationwide nearly 30% . These figures are very alarming . Rapid growth in China's carbon emissions from this perspective, China is quite stressful .
However, if you look at the issue from a different angle , Chinese coal in primary energy accounted for nearly 70% of China 's development model is now over-reliance on high energy consumption ,frac sand companies high emission of heavy industry , and whether it is coal or high energy-consuming industries , if you want to reduce row there are still many policy and technical means , so I often say that China on the issue of the energy saving many challenges , not a bad idea from another angle as the opportunity to look at.

Local conditions to achieve technological breakthroughs

Many industry insiders estimate that by 2030 China 's oil import dependency will reach 70% , which will draw on China's energy security a big question mark , then the recent shale gas heat could slow China 's dependence on foreign energy it ?
Shale gas heat has been sweeping across the land of China , but the controversy is also growing.  shale gas  in China to estimate the geographical environment , and its higher mining costs , profitability short term is not satisfactory. However, due to the massive increase in China's emerging middle class , the future demand for energy will increase significantly , will promote the development of shale gas industry . Medium and long term , shale gas will provide China with adequate energy .fracturing proppant In order to better exploit shale gas , China should learn from other countries based on the model , to further improve the domestic regulatory regime , especially on environmental issues .
Currently, shale gas has caused pollution problems in Europe and the United States has aroused strong controversy , to which China can not be ignored . Recently, the Chinese frequently purchased oil and gas assets in North America , especially on shale gas exploitation of oil and gas companies have the expertise , the rapid development of shale gas in China hopes the vision of course is good , but some of the problems that must be addressed.
Used in shale gas fracking , to be pumped into underground rock formations causing cracks in high-pressure liquid to harvest oil and gas . These high-pressure liquid is often mixed with sand and small amounts of chemicals high-pressure water . Because waste water , and there is a risk of groundwater pollution , shale gas exploitation in many countries has been questioned . In addition, the mining process requires horizontal drilling and 3D seismic exploration techniques require technical expertise and experience . Through the exploitation of perennial North American companies have accumulated a lot of experience , while the other rising star is even less experienced .
Massive shale gas proved changed the global energy landscape , such as the Gulf States , Russia and Venezuela and other traditional oil and gas exporting countries so affected, in addition , Poland, China and other shale gas Rookie right to change regional energy situation will also have an important driving effect. Australia has always been abundant reserves of shale gas exploration has also joined the army , and its sound infrastructure for the domestic shale gas escort, this change will further enhance Australia 's position in international energy map .
Because shale gas revolution, the so-called peak oil theory has ended, new technology brings new resources that will eventually reshape the geopolitical landscape . Although promising ,Proppant many countries also want to try Yueyue , but the challenge is not small. Existing reserves are not recoverable amount , according to local conditions to achieve technological breakthroughs , but also take some time.

China shale gas development should address the various issues

In any case, China  shale gas  revolution has attracted global attention , this is a success. China to promote its domestic energy situation accelerate the exploitation of shale gas . IEA 2010 data show that Chinese traditional oil production is declining , by 2030 , China 's oil demand will be 79% dependent on imports , in order to alleviate this situation , China has increased the pace of unconventional oil and gas exploitation .
According to the Chinese Ministry of Land and estimated domestic shale gas reserves of about 886 trillion cubic meters , but according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that more reserves of about 127.5 billion cubic meters . According to the projections, China shale gas reserves than the United States and Canada combined.Fracturing proppant For shale gas , China has formulated a long-term plan . China's " Twelfth Five-Year Plan" shows that by 2015, China's shale gas production will reach 65 billion cubic meters in 2020 and strive to reach 100 billion cubic meters . By then, shale gas will account for 10 percent of China's energy needs . To achieve this goal, China should increase oil and gas companies shale gas technology and cooperation in the field of research , although currently there has been some progress, but on the development of China's domestic shale gas is limited.
China has classified as independent minerals shale gas , shale gas this decision gave more room for development , because it got rid of the "three oil" control , the introduction of competition, and state-owned , private and foreign companies have the right to participate in bidding.
Chinese state-owned oil and gas companies to increase in recent years in the process of internationalization efforts for all to see , have been established with a number of international oil and gas giant consortium expansion overseas oil and gas industries. China in the international energy market advancement is indicative that it has realized the importance of strengthening overseas operations , especially with the rapid economic development, expanding the scope of business of oil and gas fields has become extremely necessary . As funded by Chinese companies in overseas acquisitions very efficient, especially in North America , CNOOC acquisition of Nixon is a typical success story. China is moving towards large-scale development of shale gas .frac sand Acquisitions allow a better understanding of the international market, China 's shale gas technology and progress , and similarly, shale gas for China a huge market , many international giants have expressed interest . Currently, Royal Dutch Shell , Chevron , Exxon Mobil , BP already Sichuan, Guizhou and other provinces of shale gas geological conditions conducted an investigation.
Future shale gas industry will escort the development of China's economy , but China should face shale gas in the face of various environmental and technical issues to be resolved through positive way , to achieve the harmonious development of resources and the environment .