2013年8月20日星期二

America's energy independence unrealistic

The United States to achieve the so-called "energy independence", this formulation is itself appears in the Ruhr Dr.Ceramic proppant unreasonable, it is still not feasible. But Ruhr speculated that "if America is to achieve energy self-sufficiency is estimated to be completed within 10 years." While attending the "Yearbook" conference of the former State Development and Reform Commission deputy director of the National Energy Secretary Zhang said, "Although the current U.S. natural gas Price just Europe 1/2 the price of gas in Europe and in Asia, 1/4, but the United States this low gas prices are not sustainable in the past few years, the number of U.S.  shale gas  drilling decreased by 75%, the market will regulate gas prices make it return to normal levels. "
Ruhr said that in 2012, oil will remain the world's dominant fuel, its market share has declined for 13 consecutive years, the global share of primary energy consumption (33.1%) BP research data is the lowest level in all years . In the global economic slowdown, sluggish growth in oil demand in the context of world oil prices remained stable, the price volatility is the absolute minimum amplitude since 1978. However, global oil production growth remains strong, OPEC's share of global output growth 3/4. Oil consumption in non-OECD economies continued growth again exceeded OECD consumption reduction. Even the weak economy led to China's oil consumption growth is lower than average, but China is still a record in the past 13 years the world's 12th highest incremental oil consumption, consumption is now more than 10 million barrels / day.
BP's study found that in the past 20 years, global energy consumption grew by 52%. In the past 10 years, global energy consumption grew by 30%, almost all the growth has come from non-OECD countries. Meanwhile, the Ruhr also pointed out that "not only in the industrialized countries, the process of growth in terms of energy consumption exceeds the OECD countries, the share of energy production is also considerable contribution in the past 10 years, the non-OECD countries in the global energy production growth in the proportion of 98% in 2012, despite a substantial increase in U.S. shale gas production, and the Chinese slowdown in coal production (3.5%), non-OECD countries still maintain the share. "
Ruhr analysts said the slowdown in the growth of global coal last year, growth in consumption and production were lower than the historical average. Consumption growth to 2.5 percent, only about half the growth in 2011; production increased from 6.1% to 2%. Global coal industry in China is still the main force. China's domestic coal production increased in the past 10 years by 135%. During this period, China in global energy consumption growth accounted for 1/3 or more of GDP. Last year,fracturing proppant China's coal consumption in the world in the proportion of total coal consumption for the first time more than 50%. BP analysis pointed out that China's coal consumption growth areas outside general slowdown. From the regional point of view, only Africa and the EU's coal consumption growth accelerated. From the country perspective, the main exceptions are Japan and India. Japan's coal consumption effectively alleviate the consequences of the nuclear energy supply disruptions; while India due to government price regulation, leading to reduced supply of natural gas, the rapid growth in demand for coal, natural gas as fuel in lieu. China's coal production growth outside push by exporters. China's coal consumption slowdown began in 2003, then all the way down. 2009-2010, the deceleration trajectory interruption because the Chinese government introduced a stimulus package of energy-intensive in response to the global economic crisis. However, the Chinese government seeks to rebalance the economy, from extensive growth to rely more on services and domestic consumption growth.

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