Tight supply and demand pattern crude oil prices to remain strong

Last year's U.S. shale oil production increasing rapidly becoming a major market bearish arguments, including Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, including investment banks are expected to be U.S. crude oil production this year will grow by 1.2 million barrels / day or more.shale gas However, from the data, in June the U.S. production was 723 million barrels / day, the cumulative growth in the first half of production is about 28 million barrels / day, not far below the market consensus, even lower than last year's 79 million barrels / day. I expect the second half of the U.S. crude oil production appears likely to fall.
Shale oil and conventional oil wells The main difference is reflected in its horizontal distribution of mineral deposits, and in the free state is rich in rock, by way of hydraulic fracturing borehole down only very limited access to resources,ceramic ball and thus its production rate of decay 65-80%, much higher than ordinary conventional oilfield 5-8%. 2010 to 2011 year-end, the U.S. surge in horizontal drilling and led the 2012 U.S. crude oil production is rising rapidly. However, since the second quarter of 2012 onwards, with the price of oil continues to maintain the doldrums, the number of drilling rapid decline, decreased from 1191 to 1067, a drop of 10.7%. Is continuing to fall.
As crude oil production from the well to generally have six months to a year delay, since the beginning of the second half of last year, the number of drilling lowering effect is expected to be gradually reflected in the second half.Frac sand I expect U.S. crude oil production in the second half more likely to fall, which will greatly change the current supply relaxed state.