2013年8月27日星期二

Limited impact on short-term and long-term impact of a huge

Short term, the U.S. oil exports more symbolic than practical significance, direct impact is limited. Over the past 10 years, U.S. exports to Canada only a small amount of crude oil ,ceramic ball the annual export volume of 800 million tons ( 2011 data ) . Although domestic oil production capacity improved, but the oil is completely independent from great distance , from a net oil output is out of reach.

One area in North America to achieve energy independence as possible. International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that output growth in accordance with the current trends, by 2017 , the United States may be more than Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer . 2012 , IEA in the " World Energy Outlook" that America's future oil and gas production increases, the global energy landscape will undergo radical changes. In the global energy map of the significant changes in the North American leader. The next 10 years, the U.S. energy self-sufficiency rate will keep rising , it is possible to achieve energy independence within North America ,Unconventional gas that is outside of North America 's energy dependence is reduced to below 5% level.

The second is to speed up the flow of global oil change . With the resource situation changes , technological progress and economic development , global oil and gas production and consumption are adjusting territory among the U.S., EU and Asia 's oil imports three major economic zones gradually clear the main channel . U.S. oil imports have formed the core of the North American , South America, Africa and the Middle East as a complementary pattern. Sides of the Atlantic ( the Americas and West Africa ) became the absolute main foreign oil supplies , the U.S. nearly 70 percent of its oil imports come from the Atlantic .

China , Japan and India, the Asia-Pacific region's oil consuming countries are highly dependent on Middle East oil supplies. Some agencies are expected , the future of China , India and other emerging markets will drive global energy demand continues to be important engine of growth , dependence on Middle East oil will be further deepened.

Third is part of the income of oil-exporting countries affected. U.S. shale oil production rise and increase self-sufficiency , the greatest impact of some of the oil-producing countries in Africa . Since 2010, Africa's crude oil exports to the United States significantly reduced , the U.S. market was originally from Nigeria, Algeria , Angola and other countries of crude  shale gas  oil was quickly replaced . In 2012, the United States is no longer Angola 's largest oil buyers, imports accounted for only 11% of its total exports , behind China and India.

Fourth, the oil market competition may be more intense. U.S. oil self-sufficiency and export of crude oil increased to improve the international oil market supply, the maintenance of the global energy supply and demand balance and price stability is of great significance . Including the United States OECD ( OECD ) countries, slowing growth in oil consumption occurs or downward trend in global oil supply and demand tight pattern will be mitigated to some extent . However, these countries long-established pattern of high energy consumption in the short term is difficult to change . The oil-consuming countries in the process of reshaping the balance of the oil market , are trying to build and strengthen their own can be driven , secure, stable oil supply system. Under the action of various forces , between developed countries , developing countries , between developed and developing countries around the oil resources of the competition between the long-term will continue to exist, and may under certain conditions tends to be intensified.

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