U.S. shale oil bubble or rupture

U.S. shale oil has recently become a hot topic in the energy industry, but also to the energy independence of the United States eager to see hope. 5 U.S. Department of Energy issued the "2013 Annual Energy Outlook Report," confidently said: "In the next decade, ceramic ball oil production will increase substantially by 2019, average daily production of domestic oil and less than 600 from 2011 barrels of 750 million barrels. "the International Energy Agency as early as the mid-May release" World Energy Outlook report, "predicted the U.S., the world's largest oil consuming country will surpass Saudi Arabia in 2017 to become the world's largest oil producer, daily production will reach 1140 million barrels.
All of these predictions are all based on increasing production is an important reason: U.S. shale oil production growth.
U.S. shale oil is mainly concentrated in North Dakota's Bakken and Texas Southern Eagleford two regions. According to the Energy Information Company HIS data from 2005 to 2012, these two places oilfield produced shale oil shale oil production in the United States accounted for more than 80%.
Bakken shale oil region has recently witnessed a spurt of development. Located in the central and western North Dakota in the United States had the most humble state, economic backwardness, rely mainly on agriculture and animal husbandry. Therefore, private landowners, the development of shale oil is technically realized later, they naturally very pleased to oil companies the right to sell the land for oil exploration.fracturing proppant Statistics show that from 2005 to the present, North Dakota's oil production soared from 90,000 barrels per day to 700,000 barrels per day. This rapid growth is inevitable for the oil industry excited, naturally aroused many people's dream of U.S. energy independence.
But, yet aside has been questioned in the U.S. shale oil reserves in question, the exploitation of shale oil is still facing various uncertainties. First, the development of shale oil revolutionary technology "fracking" (fracking), because it will damage the environment, you may encounter resistance policy. Even after the oil industry's long-term lobbying legislators on this technology hostility gradually reduced, but in view of the United States Environmental Protection Agency and the tireless efforts of a number of environmental organizations,  Hydraulic fracturing  technology may still be banned. From the current point of view, New York prohibit the use of hydraulic fracturing. Worldwide, the French also prohibited the use of this technique, although France has rich oil and gas resources rock.
Secondly, shale oil development is still facing cost pressures. It is understood that although Exxon Mobil and other large enterprises are gradually entering the shale oil field, but the current U.S. shale oil production enterprises, mostly small and medium enterprises Hess et al. These enterprises require more capital flows, the sensitivity is higher in cost. According Rystad energy consulting company's data, the U.S. shale oil production costs in the $ 44 to $ 68 per barrel between much higher than ordinary about $ 20 a barrel of oil cost of production. Cost pressures may force some oil companies to change the direction of investment, but once these companies encounter cash flow problems, and that the development of shale oil will also be among the first areas to be cut.
In addition, shale oil production also faces transport bottlenecks. Take Bekken oilfield as an example, since the rapid increase in oil production, the local oil pipelines have been overwhelmed. Just this February, due to transportation is limited, Bakken oil produced by the oil barrel price lower than the U.S. $ 27.5 basis. Although Buffett's company had invested transport system in the region, but the construction of supporting infrastructure will take several years, is bound to limit oil development. Meanwhile, the drop in oil prices will squeeze corporate profit margins, but also dampen enthusiasm for production.
Moreover, the oil companies may also face another problem, that is, the ability to obtain federal land mining rights. Private land is limited, in order to form a sufficient scale to achieve a leap in production, be sure to obtain mining rights federal lands, and at this point there are still uncertainties.